Will ranked-choice counting swamp national Democrats’ pick in the 2nd District?

 Joe Baldacci give his closing statement during a CD-2 Democratic primary debate hosted by Maine Public and the Portland Press Herald in Lewiston on May 28. (Brianna Soukup/Staff Photographer) [](https://www.pressherald.com/tag/election-2026/) _[Read all of our coverage](https://www.pressherald.com/tag/election-2026/) of Maine's 2026 election or stay up to date with the latest developments through the [Maine Political Report](https://www.pressherald.com/mprnewsletter/) in your inbox or [text messages](https://www.pressherald.com/2026/01/11/maine-political-news-sent-right-to-your-phone-sign-up-for-text-alerts-from-our-editor/) from politics editor Kirby Wilson._ With the Democratic primary in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District still unsettled, one thing is clear: The voters may not end up heeding the recommendation of national Democrats. State Sen. Joe Baldacci, D-Bangor, holds a slim lead in the first round of the ranked-choice primary. But the tight results available by Wednesday afternoon left him vulnerable to being overpowered in the final ranked-choice tallies by one of his two closest competitors — each of whom is running to his left. Baldacci — who [last month got](https://www.pressherald.com/2026/05/04/national-democrats-back-joe-baldacci-in-2nd-congressional-district/) the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s backing to try to hold the seat of outgoing Democratic Rep. Jared Golden — narrowly led the field with about [31.5%](https://www.pressherald.com/how-maine-voted-in-the-democratic-district2-house-primary/) of first-choice votes. Jordan Wood, a former Democratic operative, and State Auditor Matt Dunlap followed close behind Baldacci in that order, each hovering around 29% of the vote. The progressive pair’s vote share, combined with the 10% garnered by social worker and fourth-place finisher Paige Loud, could ultimately topple Baldacci if many supporters of his opponents — who [jointly criticized](https://www.pressherald.com/2026/05/20/2nd-district-democrats-team-up-on-baldacci-over-pac-money/) a super PAC promoting the moderate former Bangor mayor — declined to rank him on their ballots. “I don’t think he’s got it in the bag at all,” said James Melcher, a political scientist at the University of Maine at Farmington. “It’s possible any of the top three could win because of how close this is.” Advertisement The winner of the Democratic primary will face former Gov. Paul LePage, who went unchallenged for the Republican nomination, in the competitive, conservative-leaning district. Golden, a centrist Democrat, who has retained the seat even as the district repeatedly voted for President Donald Trump, [announced last fall](https://www.pressherald.com/2025/11/05/jared-golden-says-he-wont-seek-reelection-in-2026/) that he would not seek a fifth term. Baldacci wrote in a social media post Wednesday that “we’re confident in our position” as the race heads into ranked-choice tabulation. (Mainers may not know the results of the race for several days.) “I’m encouraged by the strong support our campaign has earned across the district and I’m confident in where we stand,” he added in a statement provided by his campaign. “I’m hopeful that when the count is complete, our campaign will be well-positioned to unite Democrats, take on Paul LePage, and win this seat in November.” Wood similarly wrote in a post that “we believe we’re in a strong position.” And he reiterated that in a statement, saying, “Along the way we were constantly underestimated, but I could see that with every town hall, phone call, and conversation that we were connecting with Mainers.” Reached by phone, Dunlap’s campaign manager, Harry Burke, said, “We think the ranked-choice vote is going to benefit Matt.” Advertisement Loud conceded the race in a press release shortly before noon Wednesday, saying, “the conversations we started about healthcare, disability justice, poverty, war, and government accountability are not ending.” The first step in the ranked-choice counting will be to redistribute Loud’s votes to supporters’ second-choice candidates, if they ranked one. The roughly 7,000 ballots ranking Loud first will determine who among Baldacci, Wood and Dunlap pulls ahead, but cannot bring any candidate to a majority. Rob Glover, who teaches political science at the University of Maine at Orono, said Loud’s supporters would most likely favor Dunlap, because both ran on anti-establishment messages. “If I were the Baldacci campaign, I would want to have a more substantial lead going into the tabulations next week to feel comfortable that enough second choices were going to carry over to kind of push him over the threshold,” Glover said. But Loud’s campaign manager, Christian Ricci, pushed back on the prediction that Loud’s first-choice voters would swing the ranked-choice count strongly toward any one candidate. A survey he sent to committed Loud supporters before the election suggested that those who planned to rank anyone else would “be a pretty even wash between the rest of them,” said Ricci, who declined to provide the limited results.  Advertisement Passionate progressives put Dunlap second; voters seeking a young nominee preferred Wood, the only other candidate under 60 years old; and those who “really loved Paige” but saw Baldacci as an electable alternative ranked him after Loud, Ricci said. “I don’t think there’s going to be enough of a difference for any of the candidates to leapfrog over another,” he added. “Voters are far more idiosyncratic than that.” SurveyUSA poll results [published last week](https://www.bangordailynews.com/2026/06/04/politics/elections/joe-baldacci-leads-in-latest-poll-on-maines-2nd-congressional-district/) in the Bangor Daily News indicated that voters who backed Loud were split in their second choices between Baldacci and Wood. But the poll also showed Baldacci with a substantially larger first-round advantage than the primary results have borne out. Melcher was skeptical that many voters ranked Baldacci after Loud. He said he thinks Dunlap and Wood both stand to benefit from the reallocation of Loud ballots. “She was very critical of Baldacci towards the end,” he said. “She certainly was the candidate farthest to the left, and I think most people would look at Baldacci as closest to the center or more conservative.” One factor other than ideology that appeared to affect voters’ choices is geography.  Advertisement Tuesday’s results showed that each of the three leading candidates had clear hubs of support correlated to personal ties: Baldacci did well in Bangor and most surrounding towns, Dunlap hoovered up votes in the Bar Harbor area and Wood dominated in Lewiston and Auburn. Melcher said he expected Democrats to rally behind their nominee in the general election against LePage, though Baldacci’s boost from Washington may have backfired by alienating some independent-minded voters. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee was not the only voice from Washington to weigh in on the Democratic primary in northern Maine. On Monday, Trump praised LePage on his social media platform and added: “Paul will most likely be running against a Radical Left Democrat named Matt Dunlap.” Copy the Story Link Tagged: [2nd Congressional District](https://www.pressherald.com/tag/2nd-congressional-district/), [election 2026](https://www.pressherald.com/tag/election-2026/) [](https://www.pressherald.com/author/ethan-wolin) [Ethan WolinStaff Writer](https://www.pressherald.com/author/ethan-wolin) Ethan Wolin from Washington, D.C., is a rising senior at Yale University where he served as the print managing editor for the Yale Daily News. He is assisting the Press Herald's politics team with election. [More by Ethan Wolin](https://www.pressherald.com/author/ethan-wolin)