Will ranked-choice counting swamp national Democrats’ pick in the 2nd District?

In Lewiston on May 28, Maine Public and the Portland Press Herald hosted a Democratic primary debate for the state’s 2nd Congressional District. During the event, State Senator Joe Baldacci of Bangor delivered his closing statement, a moment captured by photographers and later shared on social media.

The primary, held earlier in the week, produced a tightly contested first‑round tally. Baldacci secured roughly 31.5 % of the votes, placing him just ahead of former Democratic operative Jordan Wood and State Auditor Matt Dunlap, each of whom hovered near 29 %. Social worker Paige Loud finished fourth with about 10 % of the vote, amounting to approximately 7,000 ballots that ranked her first.

Because no candidate surpassed the 50 % threshold, the race will move to a ranked‑choice tabulation. The first step will reallocate Loud’s ballots according to each voter’s second‑choice selection. Those redistributed votes could shift the balance among the three front‑runners, though they are insufficient on their own to give any contender an outright majority.

Analysts offered differing views on how Loud’s supporters might break. Political scientist James Melcher of the University of Maine at Farmington noted the race remains fluid, saying, “I don’t think he’s got it in the bag at all… possible any of the top three could win because of how close this is.” He added that Loud’s frequent criticism of Baldacci could drive her backers toward Dunlap or Wood. Rob Glover, a political‑science professor at the University of Maine at Orono, suggested that Loud’s backers would likely favor Dunlap given their shared anti‑establishment messaging, but warned that the Baldacci campaign would prefer a larger lead entering the count to feel secure about second‑choice transfers.

Christian Ricci, Loud’s campaign manager, cited an internal survey of her committed supporters. According to Ricci, those who indicated they would rank another candidate were split fairly evenly between the remaining contenders. He described the electorate as “far more idiosyncratic than that,” predicting no single candidate would gain a decisive advantage from Loud’s reallocation. Ricci also noted that progressive voters tended to place Dunlap second, those seeking a younger nominee leaned toward Wood, and some who admired Loud but viewed Baldacci as a more electable alternative ranked him after her.

The candidates themselves expressed optimism. Baldacci posted online that his team is “confident in our position” and said he is “encouraged by the strong support our campaign has earned across the district… hopeful that when the count is complete, our campaign will be well‑positioned to unite Democrats, take on Paul LePage, and win this seat in November.” Wood echoed confidence, stating his campaign believes it is “in a strong position” and added that he felt a connection with voters through town halls, phone calls and conversations. Dunlap’s campaign manager, Harry Burke, told reporters the ranked‑choice process will “benefit Matt.” Loud, in a press release shortly before noon on Wednesday, conceded the race but emphasized that the discussions her campaign sparked on health care, disability justice, poverty, war and government accountability “are not ending.”

Geographic patterns emerged from the early results. Baldacci’s strength centered on Bangor and surrounding towns, Dunlap drew substantial support in the Bar Harbor area, and Wood performed best in Lewiston and Auburn.

The winner of the Democratic primary will face former Governor Paul LePage, who secured the Republican nomination unopposed. Incumbent Representative Jared Golden, a centrist Democrat who has held the seat despite the district’s recent presidential leans toward Donald Trump, announced last fall that he would not seek a fifth term.

National actors have also weighed in. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee endorsed Baldacci’s bid, while former President Donald Trump, commenting on LePage’s prospects, remarked that LePage would “most likely be running against a Radical Left Democrat named Matt Dunlap.”

As the ranked‑choice count proceeds over the coming days, the district’s voters will determine which Democrat advances to a general election contest that could shape Maine’s congressional representation for the next two years.