What to watch for as Maine races head to ranked-choice runoffs
MAINE NEWS NOW — MAINE POLITICS
Maine voters cast ballots Tuesday in a trio of high-stakes Democratic and Republican primaries, but none yielded a clear winner on election night. Instead, all three major races — the Democratic and Republican nominations for governor and the Democratic contest for Maine's 2nd Congressional District — will move to ranked-choice runoff voting this week.
Final results from the initial round of voting show razor-thin margins in each race, meaning the ultimate nominees won't be decided until second and third-choice ballots are counted. The Maine Secretary of State's office, which oversees the runoff process, plans to begin tabulating those ballots on Friday, with final results expected early next week.
Democratic Gubernatorial Primary: Shah Leads Tight Pack
Former Maine CDC Director Dr. Nirav Shah entered the race as one of five Democrats vying for their party's gubernatorial nomination. After 93% of precincts reported, Shah held a narrow lead with 26.8% of first-choice votes, followed by Hannah Pingree at 23.3%, Troy Jackson at 21.0%, and Shenna Bellows at 20.7%. Angus King III finished fifth with roughly 17,000 votes, ensuring his elimination first in the runoff.
Despite his first-place position, Shah's margin over the next three candidates was slim — less than 7 percentage points. King's vote total wasn't sufficient to push any remaining candidate past the 50% threshold required for victory, meaning additional rounds of ranked-choice counting will be necessary.
Shah's campaign has not commented publicly on the runoff process. However, political analysts note that the cross-endorsement agreement between Pingree, Jackson, and Bellows could significantly influence how second-choice votes flow in subsequent rounds.
David Liu, an assistant research professor at Cornell University who studies ranked-choice voting, expressed surprise at Pingree's strong performance following recent polling that had shown her in fourth place with only 12% support.
"A final-round contest between Shah and Pingree would likely be quite competitive," Liu said Wednesday.
Republican Gubernatorial Primary: Charles Holds Commanding Lead
In the Republican primary, former town manager Bobby Charles maintained a substantial advantage after 89% of precincts reported. Charles captured 37.3% of first-choice votes, compared to 20.3% for Ben Midgley and 20% for Jonathan Bush in the seven-way field.
Charles' campaign issued a statement Tuesday night declaring that "the math is clear" and that he expects to become the Republican nominee. However, political observers caution that the anti-Charles sentiment among some conservative voters could reshape the outcome once second-choice ballots are factored in.
With state Sen. Jim Libby having dropped out but remaining on the ballot, and former Paris selectman Robert Wessels also in the running, both are expected to be among the first eliminated. Since both are known supporters of Bush, much of their redistributed support may benefit Bush rather than Charles.
Additionally, Falmouth real estate developer David Jones, who endorsed Midgley as his second choice, had previously urged voters to avoid ranking Charles altogether, citing concerns about the front-runner's temperament and campaign tactics.
Liu noted that available polling data suggests Midgley voters were more likely to rank Charles second than Bush, potentially limiting Bush's opportunity to gain ground.
"The data indicates there isn't enough consolidated backing for any single challenger to overtake Charles," Liu said.
2nd Congressional District: Baldacci Edges Close Competition
The Democratic primary for Maine's 2nd Congressional District remained too close to call Wednesday evening. State Senator Joe Baldacci led with 31.6% of first-choice votes, narrowly ahead of former congressional staffer Jordan Wood at 29.2%, followed by state Auditor Matt Dunlap at 28.9%. Social worker Paige Loud finished fourth with 10.3% and conceded the race Wednesday.
Like the gubernatorial contests, the small margins separating the top three candidates mean a second round of ranked-choice voting is unavoidable. Loud's approximately 7,000 votes could play a decisive role, though her campaign indicated no clear consensus exists among her supporters regarding second-choice preferences.
An informal survey conducted by Loud's team suggested second-choice selections were fairly evenly distributed among Baldacci, Wood, and Dunlap, though the sample size was limited to about 150 individuals.
Both the Cornell University simulation model and a separate study by SurveyUSA projected Baldacci Emerging victorious, with the former estimating he would win in 67% of modeled scenarios.
The winner of the Democratic primary will face two-term Governor Paul LePage, an independent, in the general election this November.
Looking Ahead: Runoff Begins Friday
Secretary of State officials confirmed Wednesday that ranked-choice tabulation will commence Friday, with updated totals released periodically throughout the following week. Voters statewide cast over 300,000 ballots across the three contested primaries, making this one of the busiest primary nights in recent memory.
Political scientists emphasize that while early projections offer some insight into potential outcomes, the unpredictability of ranked-choice voting makes definitive conclusions difficult until all rounds of counting are complete.
As Maine continues to refine its implementation of ranked-choice voting, Tuesday's results highlight both the complexity and significance of the electoral reform passed by voters nearly a decade ago. Whether these competitive races ultimately result in decisive victories or prolonged uncertainty remains to be seen as Maine prepares for another week of historic elections.
