Troy Jackson leads Susan Collins by 6 points in final NYT/Press Herald/Siena poll
Sen. Susan Collins and Troy Jackson acknowledge their supporters at the end of a debate at Husson University in Bangor last month. (Gregory Rec/Staff Photographer)
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Troy Jackson led Sen. Susan Collins by six percentage points in a New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll of Maine voters — a big swing in a U.S. Senate race that, to this point, has been a dead heat.
Jackson, the 58-year-old Democratic nominee, had the support of 51% of respondents in the poll of 714 likely Maine voters, which was released Sunday but conducted over the past week. Collins, the five-term Republican senator, polled at 45%. The margin of error was 4.3%.
That was a nine-point swing from the September iteration of the Times/Press Herald/Siena poll. Behind that startling number was an apparently significant shift in Maine’s electorate in the past month and a half — in an election that could decide the majority of the Senate.
In the September poll, Collins held a three-point edge over Jackson. Collins, who has pitched herself as an experienced moderate, pulled substantial support from voters in Maine’s middle in that survey.
But this new poll suggests that may have changed. While in September, Collins had the support of 8% of the Democrats surveyed and Jackson drew 3% of Republicans, the new poll showed Collins with less crossover support than Jackson.
Jackson also had the support of more unenrolled voters, 52% compared to Collins’ 41%. That’s a big swing in Jackson’s favor — the September poll had the two tied among independents, each at 47%.
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Voters also said they trusted Jackson slightly more than Collins on cost of living, while Collins had a one-point edge on tackling immigration. The economy was voters’ number one issue, the survey found.
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Even Collins favorability was down: 48% of respondents said they had a favorable view of Collins, while 49% said they felt unfavorably. Collins had a 51% favorability rating in September, which matched her numbers in the heat of the 2020 campaign, when she defied polls and won with a nine-point margin over Sara Gideon.
Jackson was viewed favorably by 45% — a four-point jump since September — and unfavorably by 48%. Those figures came despite months of negative ads about Jackson from Collins and her allies, who held a large spending advantage throughout the race.
The Iran war has also been a major issue during the campaign. Jackson, whom Maine voters said they trusted more to handle foreign wars, by a three-point margin, has often pointed out Collins’ initial deference to the Trump administration in entering the war. The conflict has driven up fuel costs to record highs for the most heating oil-dependent state in the nation.
Collins has since voted several times to halt hostilities, and has touted deals with the Trump administration to release more fuel into markets.
She has also campaigned on her efforts to slow Trump’s trade war with Canada, on whom Maine is heavily reliant for bilateral trade. But Jackson has blamed Collins for not asserting congressional authority over tariffs.
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That topic produced one of the more memorable moments of the campaign: Jackson telling Collins during an October debate that Mainers “can’t eat road salt,” in response to the five-term Senator pointing out that she secured its removal from the tariff list.
Another of the campaign’s most memorable moments came during the final debate between the two. Someone in the crowd at that Oct. 15 event stood up and began shouting about data centers, to which Collins said, “That’s obviously one of Troy’s supporters.” Jackson responded with “Oh, shut up,” and Collins’ allies have since spun the moment into a series of advertisements.
The campaign has been among the most expensive of this midterm cycle nationally, with nearly $50 million raised by the campaigns, and almost $150 million spent by outside groups, according to campaign finance tracker OpenSecrets.
But Maine may not see a winner in this competitive race Tuesday evening — or even this week; if neither candidate received 50% of votes, the count will proceed to a ranked-choice tabulation of those who wrote in a first-choice vote.
The NYT/Press Herald/Siena survey found that the vast majority of voters had settled on a candidate, with just 4% either refusing to say who they’d support, or responding that they didn’t know.
The New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena Research Institute poll of Maine voters was funded with support from the Maine Trust for Local News.
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Tagged: election 2026, Registration, senate 2026, Susan Collins, Times-Press Herald-Siena poll, Troy Jackson
Ethan reports on cost of living for the Portland Press Herald. Before he joined in mid-2026, he covered local news in Augusta and surrounding areas and ran a weekly newsletter for the Kennebec Journal. More by Ethan Horton
