Susan Collins needs Democrats to vote for her. Are there enough swing voters left?

Maine Senate Race Turns Into Battle Between Loyalty and Principle
As polling narrows the gap between incumbent Senator Susan Collins and challenger Troy Jackson, voters across the state grapple with whether to reward decades of service or demand a different kind of leadership.
By September 2026, Maine's U.S. Senate race has become a microcosm of the broader national struggle between institutional loyalty and the desire for decisive action. Incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins faces a formidable challenge from former state Senate President Troy Jackson, a Republican who has positioned himself as the candidate willing to stand up to the current administration. The contest has drawn attention not just for its electoral stakes but for the personal stories of ordinary Mainers who find themselves caught between two visions of governance—one rooted in experience and compromise, the other in principled confrontation.
At the heart of the debate lies a fundamental question about the role of a sitting senator in an era defined by intense polarization. Collins, a registered Democrat who has served in the Senate for decades, has built her career on bipartisan cooperation and legislative achievement. In the 2020 election, she defeated Democrat Sara Gideon by nearly nine points—a margin comparable to Joe Biden's victory over Donald Trump—and secured nearly 57,000 additional votes compared to her party's standard-bearer, Donald Trump. An exit poll revealed that 13 percent of Democrats supported Collins, while she also held a three-point advantage among independents. These numbers suggest that while Collins remains popular within her party base, she struggles to translate that support into broad-based enthusiasm.
Yet the numbers tell only part of the story. Polling conducted earlier this month indicates that Collins and Jackson are locked in a tight race, with each candidate drawing roughly 4 percent of support from the opposing party. This represents a significant shift from previous cycles, when split-ticket voting remained more common. The changing landscape forces both campaigns to recalibrate their strategies.
"We're seeing a vanishing breed of split-ticket voters," said one campaign aide familiar with both campaigns. "The traditional expectation that voters will align their presidential and senatorial choices together appears to be breaking down. We're having to reach people who haven't yet decided, and persuading them requires a different approach."
For Collins, the challenge extends beyond winning votes—it involves defending her legacy while navigating an administration that has increasingly alienated her constituency. Her record includes substantial federal investment in Maine, with approximately $1.5 billion flowing into the state over the past five years. Officials point to projects such as a new fire station in Auburn and ongoing efforts to address violent crime in Lewiston. However, critics argue that these achievements come at a cost. The Maine Department of Health and Human Services reported that a crackdown on immigration enforcement funded by Collins' legislation resulted in the death of a Biddeford man in July, an incident that has become a focal point for opponents seeking to distance the senator from the Trump administration.
"Collins has voted with Trump ninety-six percent of the time," said David Farmer, a senior advisor to Jackson. "She supported justices who overturned Roe v. Wade and voted for funding for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, whose crackdown in Maine led to the death of a Biddeford man in July. Those things are going to come home. She can't deny them any longer. She can't play both sides against the middle like she has in the past."
Jackson's campaign has leaned heavily on this narrative, framing Collins as a loyal ally of the president who has abandoned her principles. Blake Kernen, a spokesperson for Collins, defended the senator's record in a written statement: "These voters are looking for someone who delivers real results and who doesn't engage in petty partisan games. Our candidate is one of the most bipartisan members of the Senate, which is why she attracts independent voters. 'His campaign is based on empty rhetoric and tough talk, but no plans and no accomplishments.'"
The contrast between the two approaches has created a complex dynamic among Maine voters. Many are torn between their desire for continuity and their appetite for change. "I'm not excited about Jackson's candidacy—I preferred Jordan Wood—but I plan to vote for the former logger to send a message to Collins," said Paulette Dingley, an 67-year-old Democrat from Auburn. "I appreciate the federal dollars Collins has brought to the area, but I see that as part of the job of being a U.S. senator. Please don't try to impress me by doing your job."
Others, however, remain committed to Collins despite growing criticism. Yvette Mercier of Lewiston and her brother Roger Violette of Auburn spent a quiet moment at Simone's Hot Dog Stand in Lewiston, taking coffee breaks between orders of food. "I think (Collins) does the best she can," Mercier said, sipping her drink. "She's come through with some promises." Even some who wish her to take stronger stands against the president acknowledge the importance of maintaining the status quo. Gerry Breton, a 60-year-old Republican from Minot, expressed disappointment with Collins' voting record but maintained his intention to support her: "I think she's doing okay, I really do, for the pressure she's under all the time and the people she has to deal with."
The divide runs particularly sharp in specific communities that have historically swung toward Collins. In York County, where Collins performed strongly in 2020, residents like Halley Smith—a 41-year-old real estate agent and business owner—express skepticism about her continued relevance. "She's had her time. It's time to move on," Smith said. "We need someone who's got a voice for this next generation—us."
Similarly, in Androscoggin County, where Collins outperformed both Biden and Trump by more than 3,700 votes in 2020, locals like Brough Richey, a 72-year-old Democrat who recently relocated to Gorham, argued that Collins has failed to demonstrate the independence voters expect. "On the surface, she pretends to be calm and middle-of-the-road," Richey observed. "But in my opinion, she hasn't shown any backbone in opposing this administration."
The situation in Gorham illustrates the broader tension playing out across Maine. In this traditionally moderate community, Collins won by only two points, while Biden crushed Trump by 19 points. Yet the electorate here seems divided between those who value stability and fiscal responsibility and those who demand a more confrontational approach to the current administration. Lorrie Dobbins, a 64-year-old Republican who owns a business in Gorham, reflected this complexity: "People want to keep it a little balanced. But Collins is not perfect, and she's definitely leaning more toward the conservative side than Troy Jackson."
Despite these divisions, the race remains competitive. A CNN poll released earlier this month showed Collins and Jackson each receiving approximately 4 percent of support from the opposing party, suggesting that neither candidate has achieved the broad-based appeal necessary to secure a comfortable victory. As the election approaches, both campaigns face the daunting task of mobilizing their respective bases while convincing undecided voters that their choice matters.
For now, Maine stands at a crossroads. The outcome of the November 2026 election will determine whether the state continues under the leadership of a seasoned senator who has navigated decades of policy and compromise, or shifts toward a new direction under a candidate who promises to challenge the status quo. In the end, the decision will rest with voters who must weigh tradition against transformation, loyalty against principle, and the comfort of the familiar against the urgency of change.


