Reporter's Notebook: House control could hinge on whether the old political rules still apply

Maine Faces an Uncertain Midterm Landscape as National Trends Loom Large

The first presidential election cycle since 2024’s election day is set to unfold this November, with the nation’s 435 congressional seats and two Senate seats on the line. For Maine voters, the race for the open U.S. House seat in District 2 – vacated by Jared Golden – stands out as the most immediately impactful story, but the state’s political future also hinges on the Senate contest involving incumbent Susan Collins. At the same time, the broader national picture is shaping expectations for the outcome of the House and Senate overall.

A National Game of “Old Playbook” or “New Playbook”

Traditionally, a president’s party loses a significant number of House seats during its first midterm election. In 2018, the Republicans – led by then‑President Trump – lost 30 seats; in 2022 the Democrats lost 30 seats. Polls suggest that a similar pattern could repeat in 2024, with the president’s party typically losing 20–25 seats. However, the 2024 election has been punctuated by a number of “new” political dynamics that may disrupt the familiar trajectory.

President Trump, who has campaigned on the promise that he is “on the ballot,” is once again a central figure in the elections. His polling numbers have hovered in the mid‑30s to 40‑percent range in recent weeks, while the Democratic Party’s approval rating stands around 37 percent. These figures indicate that voter sentiment toward the president is roughly equal to that toward the opposition party, a rarity in a midterm context that usually sees a rally against the president.

The question now is whether Trump’s presence will galvanize his base to higher turnout or whether the perception of his unpopularity will dampen support. Historical turnout data provide clues: turnout was 60.1 percent in 2016, 66.4 percent in 2020, and 64.3 percent in 2024. In contrast, the 2018 midterm saw a turnout of 50.1 percent, 46.1 percent in 2022, and 36.1 percent in 2014. These numbers illustrate that a president’s participation on the ballot