Pro-life group ramps up NC ground game as report finds fed abortion message gives GOP candidate biggest boost
Abortion‑Focused Messaging Shifts North Carolina Voters Toward Republican Senate Candidate, Study Finds
A recent randomized‑controlled experiment commissioned by the Susan B. Anthony Pro‑Life America (SBA Pro‑Life America) suggests that targeted abortion messages can move voters in North Carolina’s open U.S. Senate seat from Democratic nominee Roy Cooper to Republican challenger Michael Whatley. The study, conducted by research firm Evolving Strategies, tested four different messaging frames with 2,607 registered voters in the state and found that certain attack messages against Cooper’s abortion record produced the largest gains for the Republican side.
The Race in Context
The Senate seat currently occupied by retiring Republican Senator Thom Tillis will be the subject of one of the most closely watched contests in the country. With the seat up for grabs, Republican strategists are looking to keep it within their party’s control, while Democrats see an opportunity to regain a seat they lost in 2023. Central to the campaign is the issue of abortion, where the candidates’ positions diverge sharply.
Former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper, who is running for Senate, has a long history of support for abortion rights. In 2023 he vetoed North Carolina’s law that banned most abortions after 12 weeks, a move he said would harm women and families. Although the veto was overridden by the Republican‑controlled General Assembly, the episode remains a focal point for opposition groups.
How the Study Was Conducted
Evolving Strategies built an online panel of 2,607 confirmed North Carolina registered voters. Respondents were randomly assigned to one of five groups: four message conditions and one control group that received a placebo message. The messages fell into four categories:
- Fed – Criticizing Cooper’s support for federal abortion legislation that could override state limits.
- Record – Highlighting Cooper’s abortion record as governor, portraying him as an extremist on the issue.
- Soft Positive – Emphasizing Whatley’s pro‑life positions in a more moderate tone.
- Hard Positive – Aggressively promoting Whatley’s pro‑life stance.
After reading their assigned message, respondents reported which candidate they preferred and how strongly they supported each candidate’s abortion policy. The researchers then used predictive modeling to estimate the likelihood of voters shifting their support under each messaging scenario.
Results: Attack Messages Outperform Positive Framing
The study found that all pro‑life messages shifted support toward Whatley, but attack messages against Cooper were most effective. The Fed message moved the Republican margin by 4.9 percentage points, while the Record message added 3.2 points. The Hard Positive message performed better than its softer counterpart, adding 3.9 points versus 1.7 points for the Soft Positive message.
When the researchers focused on the most persuadable voters—those whose predictive models indicated the greatest likelihood of switching—the estimated impact grew dramatically. In that segment, the Republican vote margin could increase by 12 points or more.
“We are finding that these messages really resonate. We’re finding that voters feel left behind by the Democratic Party, especially those who were leaning Democratic or were undecided about Cooper. It’s a top‑performing issue in North Carolina and makes a big difference,” said SBA Pro‑Life America president Marjorie Dannenfelser. “When it comes to the life issue, the thing that works best in North Carolina for the Senate race is that Gov. Cooper vetoed the 12‑week limit, which is wildly popular in the state and across the country, to stop abortion at the first trimester. He vetoed it and then his veto was overridden. It was a very unpopular move that really moves voters.”
Implications for the Campaign
SBA Pro‑Life America says it has already reached more than 770,000 homes across North Carolina with a new voter‑contact strategy. Canvassers are targeting low‑turnout and persuadable voters with messages centered on abortion, Cooper’s record, and federal legislation that could override state limits. The study’s findings are intended to help the organization allocate resources more efficiently, focusing on voters most likely to flip in response to targeted messaging.
“Where we start is how your vote will be moved. We use consumer data to create a profile of our best voter and we score those voters,” Dannenfelser explained. “What we’re looking for is our best voters, whether they’re inclined to vote or not, and then making sure that we communicate them with them at their doors through digital communications and every other form of communication that they receive.”
The Larger Picture
The experiment underscores the potency of abortion as a political battleground in North Carolina. While Republicans have long campaigned on pro‑life policies, the study shows that framing opposition to the Democratic nominee’s abortion record can produce tangible swings in voter sentiment. Whether the messaging can translate into votes remains to be seen in the upcoming primaries and the general election, but the data offers a roadmap for the parties to refine their outreach strategies.
As the Senate race heats up, the study’s findings will likely inform not only local campaign tactics but also the national conversation about how issue framing shapes electoral outcomes.
