Pessimists say the economy is weak. The good news is, they are wrong
The author of a recent opinion column is pushing back against widespread skepticism about the U.S. economy, arguing that business investment and consumer spending data tell a much more optimistic story than critics suggest.
The column, written by Julio Gonzalez, points to a Government Accountability Office report released Aug. 10 showing that the IRS issued $296 billion in tax refunds during the 2026 filing season, a 17% increase over the previous year. The average refund rose by $333 compared with the prior year, and the IRS processed more than 8 million additional returns. According to the GAO, part of that increase was driven by taxpayers claiming newly available deductions.
Gonzalez ties that activity to provisions in the Trump administration's recently enacted "One Big Beautiful Bill," which restored 100% bonus depreciation, expanded Section 179 deductions for small businesses, and created new tax breaks for items such as qualified tips and overtime pay. The IRS has also issued guidance aimed at making those provisions easier for business owners to use.
He argues that those policy changes are already translating into real-world activity, including equipment purchases, facility upgrades, technology investments, and hiring. He also points to provisions allowing immediate deduction of qualifying research and development expenditures and favorable treatment for qualified production property as incentives for domestic manufacturing and innovation.
A White House economist has separately projected that GDP growth could exceed 5% amid the capital spending boom, according to media reports.
Gonzalez frames the moment as a turning point for entrepreneurs who had been waiting on the sidelines. "This is the year to invest," he writes. "Every month you delay is a month your competitors are pulling ahead."
He closes by urging readers to look beyond negative headlines and focus on balance sheets and spending data. "Anyone still calling this economy weak isn't paying attention to the right indicators," he concludes.