Another poll shows Troy Jackson leading a tight Maine Senate race
Maine Senate Race Stays Tight as New Poll Gives Jackson Slight Edge
A new Washington Post survey released Friday shows Democrat Troy Jackson holding a narrow four‑point lead over incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins in Maine’s U.S. Senate contest. The poll, conducted Sept. 30‑Oct. 5 in partnership with the George Washington University Schar School of Policy and Government, reported 50% of respondents favoring Jackson and 46% supporting Collins, a margin that sits almost exactly within the 3.6‑point error range of the study.
The Washington Post study is the latest in a series of surveys that have kept the Senate race in the headlines. A separate poll from the New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena released two weeks earlier found Collins with a marginal lead, while the aggregate data from FiftyPlusOne gives Jackson a two‑point edge. The new post‑poll is therefore a reminder that the contest remains a “barn burner,” likely to hinge on the small handful of undecided voters.
A race under scrutiny
Collins, 73, has served in the Senate for 30 years and is seeking a sixth term. She has been the focus of a long‑running FBI inquiry into a potential pay‑to‑play scheme that allegedly steered contracts to a donor, a story first exposed by ProPublica in September. Collins has denied any wrongdoing and says she was cleared by the Biden administration before the investigation was halted when Donald Trump took office in early 2025. A spokesperson from Collins’ campaign released new information on Oct. 6 that disputes the allegations.
Jackson, a fifth‑generation logger from the North Maine Woods and former President of the state Senate, is a longtime advocate for Maine’s natural resources. His background has earned him a net approval rating of +1 in the Post poll, though 13% of respondents said they had no opinion on the candidate. The poll found Jackson’s appeal among independents particularly strong (53% to Collins’ 40%) and that he drew more crossover support from Republicans (9% versus Collins’ 6% from Democrats).
Voter priorities and the Trump factor
Among respondents, the most pressing issues were the cost of living (41%), immigration (13%), healthcare (12%) and taxes (6%). While 52% of voters said that a 30‑year Senate tenure is a liability, Collins still led by a 24‑point margin on bringing federal money back to Maine and on bipartisanship.
Trump’s popularity—or lack thereof—continued to loom large. Sixty‑three percent of the surveyed voters disapproved of the former president’s performance, and 58% felt Collins sides with him too often, compared to just 33% who said she handles her relationship with Trump “about right.” Yet a majority (55%) said they wanted a Democrat to win the Senate seat, with only 42% favoring a Republican, indicating that the national political climate is a factor but not a decisive one.
Governor race in the same survey
The survey also touched on Maine’s three‑way governor race, giving Democrat Hannah Pingree a 49% lead over Republican Bobby Charles (36%) and placing independent Rick Bennett at 11%—his best showing to date.
The road ahead
With a 4‑point margin that sits within the margin of error, Jackson’s current advantage is far from secure. Both campaigns have highlighted the other’s weaknesses while promising to focus on local issues. As the election draws nearer, the outcome will likely hinge on the small pool of voters who remain undecided or willing to switch sides. Maine voters will be watching closely to see whether Collins can rally enough support to counteract the national headwinds and whether Jackson can convert his independent and crossover appeal into a decisive victory.
